Bitcoin’s Correlation With Gold Is Weakening, Says New Kraken Report

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Though Bitcoin’s (BTC) correlation with gold has diminished, the asset’s correlation with the S&P 500 stock market index is on the rise, researchers from Kraken exchange found.

Kraken Intelligence, a research arm of major United States cryptocurrency exchange, Kraken, released a “Bitcoin Volatility Report” for June 2020.

Bitcoin’s volatility hits a 6-month low

Published on July 9, the new report outlines a 31% drop in Bitcoin trading that resulted in a six-month low of Bitcoin’s annualized volatility, which accounted for 51% in June.

According to the report, the significant decline in volumes and volatility marked June as the quietest month since February 2020 for Bitcoin. This also caused a major trend reversal that greatly impacted Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks and gold.

BTC correlation with gold drops 0.73 from average indicators in June

As such, Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with gold plunged below its one-year average of 0.24 to hit a four-month low of -0.49, the researchers found. The correlation move followed a modestly positive trend in the second half of May that ended above a one-year average of 0.50, Kraken Intelligence noted.

Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with gold

Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with gold. Source: Kraken Intelligence

Correlation with S&P 500 is growing

While Bitcoin is becoming less correlated with gold, the cryptocurrency’s correlation with stock market indexes like S&P 500 is growing. According to Kraken Intelligence, the reversal trend caused Bitcoin’s correlation with S&P 500 to climb to as high as 0.65 in late June. The monthly average surged at 0.52 from a one-year average of 0.26, the analysts noted.

Kraken’s data on S&P 500 correlation appears to coincide with information shared by digital asset exchange, OKCoin, earlier this week. Daniel Koehler, liquidity manager at OKCoin, told Cointelegraph that the exchange witnessed “high” levels of BTC and S&P 500 one-month realized correlation. “The last time we saw SPX and BTC 1M realized volatility spread this low was just prior to the March 12th BTC price crash,” Koehler added.

Earlier in June, stock-to-flow analyst PlanB claimed that a heavy correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500 should have sent Bitcoin’s price to $18,000.



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